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張堯浠周评避险持续助推、黄金下周非农仍看涨继续
2020-01-08 01:50   来源:  www.getslapt.com   评论:0 点击:

張堯浠周评避险持续助推、黄金下周非农仍看涨继续黄金市场交易日(2019年12月30日--2020年1月3日)当周,因

黄金市场交易日(2019年12月30日--2020年1月3日)当周,因中途元旦休市一日,故此只有4天的走盘时间。但黄金价格波动幅度依然不受制于时间。走势上,伦敦金自周一开于美元/盎司后小幅震荡收阳后连续反弹上行,并在周五(1月3日)大幅上冲录得当周高点美元,逼近2019年9月初录得的近六年高位1557美元/盎司。同时也收涨于美元,涨幅达到%,实现连续第四周收阳的同时,也达到了日内我看涨的位置,并在之前1450美元看涨的时候,一路跟进,获利颇丰。

Gold market trading day (December 30,2019- January 3,2020) week, due to the midway New Year's Day closing day, so only four days of walking time. But the volatility of gold prices remains unchecked in time. On the move, london gold has bounced back and forth since trading slightly in the dollar\/oz on monday, and on friday (january 3) it surged to a weekly high of $1,557\/oz, close to the nearly six-year high of $1,557\/oz recorded in early september 2019. It also closed up at the dollar, or%, for the fourth week in a row, as well as my bullish position in the day, and followed up on the previous rally of $1450.

影响上;《玩赚黄金投资交易》作者張堯浠言论;周一在上周提到的初步技术压力下涨势有所受限,不过日内出现美国对伊拉克和叙利亚发动空袭的影响,则支撑了黄金收涨。到周二延续提振再次冲高,不过美指和道指等反弹的影响,川普发布的称将于1月15日在白宫签署第一阶段经贸协议的推文,打压了避险情绪的影响等等,对黄金产生压力而明显回落。不过还好市场看涨情绪强劲,最终仍然收涨。

周三元旦休市,转至周四(2020年1月02日)现货黄金开盘受到周二的利空影响一度表现不佳,走势有所偏弱。美元指数继续反弹,日内中国央行下调了准备金率,向金融市场注入更多资金的消息同时也提振了全球股市。晚盘初请失业金人数小幅下降,12月挑战者企业裁员人数(万人)公布为小于前值,再次对金价造成较大压力。

Wednesday's New Year's Day market was closed, moving to Thursday's (January 02,2020) spot gold opening was affected by Tuesday's bad performance, somewhat weak. The dollar index continued to rally, with the central bank cutting its reserve ratio in the day, injecting more capital into financial markets and boosting global stock markets. At the beginning of the evening, the number of jobless claims fell slightly, and the number of layoffs at the challenger in december was reported to be less than the previous value, again putting pressure on gold prices.

不过,由于全球经济下滑,央行将会实现宽松的货币政策的影响,侧面也支撑了金价。另外,受到黄金支撑的ETF的资金流入的推动。市场也不看好回撤,所以金价则保持将强劲。以及市场仍对在2020年的经贸谈判产生一些不确定性,这些隐忧令黄金获得避险买盘提振。再加上无协议脱欧担忧情绪回升,中东局势进展难以消减等都在支撑着金价,这一直推动金价在美指和股市强压之下保持上行。

But with the global economic downturn, central banks will achieve the impact of loose monetary policy, and gold prices will be bolstered. In addition, the inflow of ETFs, supported by gold, was driven. Markets aren't bullish on pulling back either, so gold will remain strong. And the markets still create some uncertainty about trade negotiations in 2020, which has given gold a safe-haven boost. Coupled with renewed fears of a no-agreement exit from europe and the lack of progress in the middle east, all of which have helped prop up gold prices under strong u.s. and stock-market pressures.

再到至周五(01月03日)空袭再度发生,并造成重要人物伤亡及升级性的发展,令其避险资产黄金等大幅上涨。另外,虽经贸局势改善,但晚间公布的数据显示美国制造业继续不给力,降至十年最低,这进一步支撑金价。从而推到金价升至1550关口,虽在此造成一度的回落,也同时验证了日内说到可看回撤的观点。但由于最后,美联储公布的12月10-11日政策会议纪要整体又偏向鸽/派,进而再次从回撤后的支撑位反弹,从而录得当周高点,最后有所震荡并收涨。

By Friday (03 January), air strikes had re-emerged, causing casualties and escalating growth in key assets, such as safe-haven gold. In addition, while the economic and trade situation improved, data released late in the evening showed that U.S. manufacturing continued to be weak, falling to a decade low, which further supported gold prices. This pushed the price of gold to the 1550 mark, although this caused a drop, but also verified the intraday point of view that can be seen back. But in the end, the minutes of the dec.10-11 policy meeting released by the federal reserve, as a whole, were in favor of the doves, and then rebounded from the retreating support level, which led to a high for the week, and finally a shock and a rally.

展望下周市场(01月06日-10日);黄金迎来正常的重磅数据周,除了其他的重要经济数据:中国外汇储备和社会融资、欧元区和中国CPI、加拿大和澳大利亚贸易帐、加拿大就业报告等。重点还在周五的美国非农就业报告,在此之前美国还将公布ADP小非农数据,ISM非制造业PMI等重要数据,另外,还有全球主要央行的多名官员将先后公开发表讲话。届时,行情跳动的幅度加大。

Looking ahead to next week's market (January 06-10); gold ushered in a normal blockbuster data week, among other important economic data: China's foreign exchange reserves and social financing, the eurozone and China CPI, Canada and Australia trade account, Canada employment report, etc. The focus will also be on Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report, before the U.S. releases key figures such as ADP small non-farm payrolls, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and several officials from the world's major central banks will speak out. At that time, the range of market beats increased.

值得一说的是下周五非农,市场预计将增加大幅降低为万人,远低于前值的。所以,不管最终数值如何,都将会有一波拉升,所以最终走势,仍是寻找支撑,低多为主的策略。

It is worth mentioning that next Friday, the market is expected to increase significantly to reduce the number of people, well below the previous value. So, no matter what the final value, there will be a wave of pull up, so the final trend, is still looking for support, low-based strategy.

观点上,張堯浠认为;近期的美联储会议纪要没有意外之处,也可认为是正处于观望状态,市场也对重要性大大降低。故此,2020年金融市场的重要关注事件可先对其排除。黄金市场主要动力应该还是其地缘政治局势的影响,以及美伊关系的发展,虽避险推动往往是短期性的,但造成的升级局面,也会令其金价走出长期的幅度,所以也尤为重要。最后,经贸局势仍然是值得首要关注的。前景上,还是认为黄金更偏向上涨。

On the point of view, mr zhang believes that the recent fed minutes are not surprising, can be considered to be in a wait-and-see state, the market is also significantly less important. Therefore, the important concerns of financial markets in 2020 can be excluded first. The main driver of the gold market should still be the impact of its geopolitical situation, and the development of u. s.-iranian relations, which tend to be short-term, but the resulting escalation will also take its gold prices out of the long-term range, so it is particularly important. Finally, the economic and trade situation is still worthy of primary attention. On the outlook, gold is more likely to rise.

技术上;周线级别;金价自上周大涨突破中轨阻力后,本周再次延续上行大幅走高,不仅持稳于上轨上方,也上行触及布林带上轨,并在收线上导致布林带扩张,加上MACD绿色动能柱缩减有殆尽迹象,快慢线聚合有金叉转型的趋势,暗示红色柱显示,较强看涨信号和都能即将来临。故此,后市仍有上周空间,并且会一举突破前高1557并迈向1580美元的位置,乃至千六。打破这一观点的止损支撑位则是中轨支撑处的1495美元,在这之上看涨不变。

After last week's rally broke through mid-rail resistance, gold continued to rise sharply again this week, holding not only above the upper rail, but also hitting the upper rail of the Brin belt, causing the expansion of the Brin belt on the closing line, plus signs that the MACD green kinetic energy column has shrunk down, and the convergence of the fast and slow lines has a trend of gold fork transformation, suggesting that the red column shows that stronger bullish signals and both are coming. As a result, the future market still has space for last week, and will break through the previous 1557 high and move to the position of $1580, or even a thousand six. The stop-loss support level that breaks this view is $1,495 at the mid-track support, above which the bull remains the same.

日线级别;金价连续8日反弹收阳,也完好验证了之前12月中旬末说到的只要是突破1483美元阻力,不管虚破实破大胆跟进看涨即可。目前来看,黄金处于的单边上涨,似乎有些超买,但市场看涨预期仍然高涨。上方初步阻力仍是先1555-1557美元,突破则直接看至1570美元及1580美元。下方关注1537-1540美元支撑,进一步关注1528-1530美元保持看涨跟进。关注其看涨力度到达的目标位。

Dayline level;The gold price rebounded for eight consecutive days, and it was good to verify that at the end of December, as long as it was over$1,483 of resistance, regardless of the bold follow-up. At present, the unilateral rise in gold seems to be a bit over-buying, but market inflation expectations remain high. The initial resistance above continued to be$1555,1557, and the breakthrough was directly at$1,570 and$1580. Below is a focus on$15371,540 support, and further concerns$15281,530 to keep up on the rise. Pay attention to the target position to which the increase is reached.

4小时级别;金价处于20周期布林带的扩展看涨状态,但暂时上行有所停滞窄幅震荡,MACD看涨信号有所缩减,RSI表现转下行走,暗示或有回落的可能及空间。下方关注1544美元初步支撑,及1438美元再次看涨,进一步关注1529美元支撑。上方仍是关注1555-1557美元的前高阻力附近,如承压回落震荡,则形成双顶形态,后市则偏向重回千五关口风险,如向上突破,则跟进看涨即可,目标不变。

Four-hour scale; gold is in an extended bullish state of the 20-cycle Brin band, but temporarily the upswing has stagnated, the MACD call signal has shrunk, the RSI performance has turned to walk, suggesting that there may be room for a fall. Below focus on the $1544 initial support, and $1438 again bullish, further focus on the $1529 support. The top is still concerned about the $1555-1557 near the front high resistance, such as pressure down shock, the formation of a double top form, the future market is inclined to return to the risk of a thousand five points, if the upward breakthrough, follow up bullish can, the goal remains unchanged.

以上观点及分析仅代表作者个人思路,不作交易依据,据此操作,盈亏自负。本人著作《玩赚黄金投资交易》一书已经上线

The above point of view and analysis only represent the author's personal thinking, not as a basis for trading, according to this operation, profit and loss at his own expense. My book \"Trading in Gold\" has been launched


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