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B站正在做一件前无古人的事情
2020-01-08 00:51   来源:  www.getslapt.com   评论:0 点击:

B站正在做一件前无古人的事情从2019年下半年起,B站就在做一件前无古人的事情:既要大幅度扩张用户基数,又

  从2019年下半年起,B站就在做一件前无古人的事情:既要大幅度扩张用户基数,又要保持二次元和Z世代社区的调性。它希望在未来几年内,将MAU(月活用户)扩张到2亿以上,将营业收入扩张到100亿人民币以上;与此同时,它仍需保持“中国最佳”的内容社区调性,以及活跃而忠诚的核心用户群体。

From the second half of 2019, station B has been doing something unprecedented: both expanding the user base substantially and maintaining the tonality of the quadratic element and Z generation community. It hopes to expand MAU to more than 200m in the coming years, expanding revenue to more than Rmb10bn, while still maintaining a \"China's best \"content community tone and a dynamic and loyal core user base.

  上述目标看上去自相矛盾。事实上,以前有很多人尝试过,可惜都不太成功。“用户基数”和“垂直调性”似乎是天然互斥的——你的用户基数越大,用户调性就越是庞杂,就越无法聚焦于垂直品类,也越难以维持良好的社区调性。三大视频平台的用户基数均在B站的2-3倍以上,但是没人会认为三大视频平台有什么调性(爱奇艺稍微有一点吧);微信的用户是全国第一,但是没人会认为微信有什么调性。快手和抖音在发展初期很有调性——前者是“老铁集散地”,后者是“潮人集中营”;但是随着用户基数的剧增,它们都逐渐变成了全民应用,虽然调性仍然存在,却正在不断冲淡。

These goals seem contradictory. In fact, a lot of people have tried it before, but it's not very successful. The "user base "and "vertical tonality "seems to be naturally mutually exclusive – the larger your user base, the more miscellaneous the user tone is, the less likely it is to focus on vertical categories and maintain good community tonality. The user base of the three major video platforms is more than 2-3 times that of station b, but no one will think that the three major video platforms have any tonality (iqiyi is a little bit more); wechat users are the first in the country, but no one will think wechat has any tonality. Fast hands and chatter were toned in the early stages of development – the former being an "old rail hub" and the latter a "trendy concentration camp "– but as the user base grew, they were all becoming popular, and tonality, though still, was being diluted.

  可能有些人不明白什么是“调性”。下面是本怪盗团团长的个人见解:“调性”就是在用户心目中把你和别人区分开的东西;“调性”就是用户对你的刻板印象;“调性”就是文化、就是区分度、就是作者风格。王家卫的电影很有调性,马尔克斯的小说很有调性,B站的PUGC很有调性。如果有一天,用户无法在短时间内区分B站/爱奇艺,或者B站/抖音,或者B站/快手,那么B站就丧失调性了。这就是我们说“三大视频平台没有调性”的原因——它们播放着一样的内容、采取一样的流量分配模式、连前端界面都很相似。同样,你也可以理解为什么微信没有调性——微信就是全体中国互联网用户,全体用户不可能有什么特别的调性(都是人?)。

Maybe some people don't understand what "tonality" is. The following are the personal insights of the head of the group:" tonality "is what distinguishes you from others in the user's mind;" tonality" is the user's stereotype of you; and "tonality" is the culture, the degree of distinction, the style of the author. Wong Kar-wai's film is tonal, Marquez's novel is tonal, and station B's PUGC is tonal. If one day, users cannot distinguish between B station / iqiyi in a short time, or B station / quiver, or B station / fast hand, then B station loses tonality. That's why we say "the three big video platforms aren't tonal "- they play the same content, take the same traffic distribution pattern, and even have a similar front-end interface. Also, you can understand why WeChat has no tonality - WeChat is all Chinese Internet users, all users cannot have any special tonality (all people? )。

  不要误会,“调性”不一定是什么不食人间烟火的东西。“调性”可以很赚钱。快手老铁们一边弹吉他一边直播生吃大肥肉,已经赚到了几百亿打赏;FGO用登峰造极的人设和巧夺天工的数据留住粉丝的心,每年都能赚到几十亿流水。问题在于,在很多人心目中,用户基数的增加、商业变现的深入,必然会导致调性的损失或者消失。那么,B站能是例外吗?

Don't get me wrong. ``Tuning'' isn't necessarily something that doesn't eat people. ``Tuning'' can make money. Fast-handed old irons, playing guitar and eating big fat live live, have earned billions of dollars in reward;The FGO keeps the fans' hearts by using the data of the people who are on the peak and the data of the talent, making billions of running water every year. The problem is that, in many people's mind, the increase of the base of users and the deepening of commercial realization will inevitably lead to the loss or disappearance of regulation. So, can Station B be an exception?

  从理论上讲,在“用户基数扩大”“营业收入剧增”的同时,是有可能做到“社区调性不损失”的。然而,那将是一个非常艰难的过程,像走钢丝一样艰难。本怪盗团团长试图解释一下其中的逻辑:

Theoretically, it is possible to achieve \"no loss of community tone\" while \"expanding the user base\" and \"dramatically increasing operating income \". However, it will be a very difficult process, as hard as a tightrope. The head of the group tried to explain the logic:

  无论用户基数多大,如果能让用户根据兴趣爱好、社交关系、性格、地理位置等,形成若干个互不干扰的“小圈子”,那么社区调性就可以保持住。这样,B站在宏观上是一个大型视频平台,在微观上则是无数个垂直平台。

No matter how large the user base, if the user can be based on interests, social relations, personality, geographical location, etc., to form a number of non-interference \"small circle \", then the community tone can be maintained. In this way, B station in the macro is a large video platform, in the micro is countless vertical platform.

  上述做法的难点在于:对应用界面、推荐算法、社区运营的要求极高。算法还可以在技术上不断微调,运营则是一个彻头彻尾的体力活。新浪微博从巅峰的衰落,至少有一半应归咎于糟糕的运营;知乎、豆瓣也遇到过这样的问题。

The difficulty of the above approach lies in the high demand for application interface, recommendation algorithm and community operation. Algorithms can also be technically constantly fine-tuned, and operations are a complete physical exercise. At least half of Sina Weibo's decline from its peak has been attributed to poor operations; so has the problem.

  抵抗“过度商业化”的诱惑也是很重要的。百度贴吧一度做到过“大而全”和“垂直品类”并存,但是卖贴吧、广告太多等“过度商业化”行为影响了贴吧的社区根基;知乎的商业化也饱受老用户诟病。过度商业化不仅会损害用户体验,还会从根本上摧毁其忠诚度。

It is also important to resist the temptation of \"excessive commercialization \". Baidu post bar once achieved \"big and complete\" and \"vertical category\" co-exist, but the sale of posts bar, advertising too much and other \"excessive commercialization\" behavior affected the community roots of the bar; the commercialization is also criticized by old users. Excessive commercialization will not only damage the user experience, but also fundamentally destroy its loyalty.

  还有一个问题:用户真能被分入若干个“小圈子”吗?如果一个用户同时具备几种差别很大的爱好呢?对内容的兴趣爱好,在多大程度上决定了用户行为?更进一步地说,决定“调性”的到底是什么——内容本身?对内容的反馈方式(例如发弹幕)?还是另有深层原因?

Another question: can users really be divided into \"small circles \"? What if a user has several different hobbies? To what extent do interests in content determine user behavior? Furthermore, what determines \"tonality \"-the content itself? Feedback on content (e.g. screen)? Or is there another deep reason?

  如果在想尽一切方法的情况下,B站还是无法做到“扩大用户基数”和“维持社区调性”的两全其美,那么它应该优先顾及哪一头呢?我希望它能同时做到两点,但是总要做好一切打算。

If, in doing everything possible, station B cannot achieve the best of both \"expanding the user base\" and \"maintaining community tonality \", which end should it prioritize? I hope it can do two things at once, but always do everything.

  我无法回答上述问题,所以我不是B站的产品经理。我相信,无论B站自己,还是它的竞争对手乃至广义的同行,对上述问题都已经思考过很多轮了。我们无法坐在办公室里、电脑桌前,就把道理想明白;互联网行业的道理是真刀真枪地拼杀出来的。

I can't answer the above questions, so I'm not the product manager of station B. I believe that the B-stand itself, as well as its competitors and even its broad peers, have already pondered many of these issues. We can't sit in the office and at the computer desk and figure out the truth; the truth of the internet industry is real.

  可能会有人问:为什么B站一定要维持原有的社区调性呢?尤其是硬核二次元内容,在任何国家都注定是小众的、垂直的,为什么一定不能放弃它呢?为什么不能任其自然边缘化呢?答案很简单:除了道德因素,利益因素也不允许B站的“硬核二次元用户”有实质性松动。这群“死肥宅”事实上养活了B站,也养活了B站上大批不付钱、非二次元的人群。

Some may ask: Why must station B maintain its original community tone? In particular, the hard core quadratic element content, in any country is doomed to be niche, vertical, why must not give it up? Why can't we leave it to its natural marginalization? The answer is simple: besides the moral factor, the benefit factor also does not allow the B station's \"hard core quadratic element user\" to have the substantial loosening. The \"dead house \"has in fact fed the B-station, as well as the large non-paying, non-two-dimensional population on the B-station.

  B站的主要收入来源,过去、现在、未来都是游戏,尤其是其中的二次元游戏。FGO一款游戏至今仍能贡献B站的近半数营业收入;以前的《碧蓝航线》、今年的《双生视界》均一度构成了收入增长的顶梁柱。当FGO因为不做活动而流水下滑时,B站股价也跟着下滑;当《双生视界》首周表现大超预期时,B站投资者也雀跃不已。B站独家代理的大部分是二次元游戏;它联运的游戏五花八门,但是收入最高的也是其中的二次元品类。

Station B's main source of income, past, present and future are all games, especially quadratic element games. FGO, a game that still contributes nearly half of station B's revenue, was once the backbone of revenue growth. When FGO was running down because it didn't do its job, B-station's share price slipped, and when Twin Vision's first week hit bigger-than-expected performance, B-station investors were thrilled. Most of station b's sole agents are quadratic element games; it combines a wide variety of games, but the highest income is also the quadratic element category.

  B站可不可以进军“非二次元”市场,主动脱离原有的硬核二次元用户呢?理论上可以,可是没有必要,而且太危险。二次元游戏是最适合B站的品类。其他品类又是什么样的?让本怪盗团团长尝试梳理一下:

B station can enter the \"non-quadruplex\" market, the initiative away from the original hard-core quadratic element users? Theoretically yes, but not necessary, and too dangerous. quadratic element game is the most suitable category for b station. What are the other categories? Let the head of this gang try to comb:

  毫无疑问,竞技/休闲竞技品类是腾讯的禁脔,腾讯不会允许任何人触碰它。2017-18年,网易在“吃鸡”品类一度抢跑几个月,却还是败于腾讯的“社交 产品 运营”三位一体的天罗地网。某些智商较低的投资者盼望着头条在这个领域挑战腾讯,但是头条的智商没那么低。

There is no doubt that the competitive\/casual category is the preserve of Tencent, and Tencent will not allow anyone to touch it. In 2017-18, Netease ran for months in the \"chicken-eating\" category, but still lost to Tencent's \"social product operation\" trinity. Some investors with lower IQs are looking forward to the headlines challenging Tencent in this area, but the headline IQ is not that low.

  超休闲品类近年的崛起速度很快,尤其是不受制于版号、可以广告变现或内部交叉导流。问题在于,腾讯、网易、乐元素乃至头条都在这个领域设置重兵,而B站在这个领域又没有很强的比较优势。

The rise of the ultra-casual category has been rapid in recent years, especially since it is not subject to edition numbers, can be realized through advertising or internal crossover. The problem is that Tencent, NetEase, the music element and even the headlines all set up heavy troops in this field, and B standing in this field does not have a strong comparative advantage.

  女性向是一个不错的高成长市场,但是已经有苏州叠纸等巨头了;腾讯、网易的女性向产品表现也还可以。而且,女性向市场目前的规模其实没有二次元那么大。B站的女性用户虽然不少,但是在女性向游戏方面仍然需要长期探索和一点运气。

Women are a good high-growth market, but there are already giants such as suzhou paper folding; tencent, netease women to the product performance is also ok. Moreover, women are not as big as quadratic element in the market. Although there are many female users in the B station, there is still a need for long-term exploration and a bit of luck in women's gameplay.

  传统MMORPG/ARPG/SLG等高ARPU领域完全不是B站的天下。我们很难想象B站去代理“传奇系”或者《三国志战略版》。这些高ARPU产品的核心用户是30-45岁的老男人,主要发行方式是买量 硬核联盟应用商店。B站在正常情况下肯定不会尝试这一块。

The traditional MMORPG \/ ARPG \/ SLG and other high ARPU field is completely out of the B station world. It's hard to imagine standing B acting for the Legendary Department or the Strategic Edition of the Three Kingdoms. The core users of these high ARPU products are 30-45-year-old men, mainly issued by buying the Hard Nuclear Alliance App Store. B You're not going to try this piece under normal circumstances.

  开放世界/沙盒、模拟经营、恋爱养成……其中某些可以归入二次元/女性向,有些还是走上了MMO/SLG的老路,有些干脆就是伪命题。对于一些过于创新的品类,还是让腾讯、网易先去探索好了。

Open world \/ sandbox, mock business, love development... Some of them can be classified as quadratic or feminine, some are still on the path of MMO\/SLG, and some are simply pseudo-propositions. For some too innovative categories, or let Tencent, NetEase explore first.

  综上所述,B站与二次元游戏是天造地设;它在短期内很难找到第二个天造地设。新增1000万MAU固然重要,但是哪怕硬核二次元用户流失100万也会肉疼。2019年以来,FGO在一般情况下的DAU也就几十万,而这几十万用户可以创造几百万的日流水、几亿的月流水。我估计《双生视界》的峰值DAU也不到一百万,而它的峰值日流水显然达到了千万量级。

To sum up, B station and quadratic element games are built in heaven and earth; it is difficult to find the second in the short term. It's important to add 10 million MAUs, but even the loss of 1 million hardcore quadratic element users will hurt. Since 2019, FGO's DAU in general is hundreds of thousands, and these hundreds of thousands of users can create millions of daily and hundreds of millions of monthly. I estimate that Twin Horizons has a peak DAU of less than a million, and its peak solar waters are clearly at the order of ten million.

  过去几个季度,B站的用户基数已经在不断扩大了,这是内容品类扩张、品宣广告、买量等因素共同作用的结果。刚刚结束的B站跨年晚会,显然进一步增强了B站在年轻用户中的地位。认真观察这个跨年晚会的节目单,你会发现:其中固然有一些硬核二次元内容、一些泛二次元内容,但是也有很多与二次元文化无关的内容。吴亦凡兴高采烈地登台演唱了《大碗宽面》,从而进一步巩固了娱乐类内容在B站的定位。我上次拜访B站时,正好遇到黄晓明前来拜访,我还因此疑惑:黄晓明在B站有很多粉丝吗?现在不用疑惑了,无论有没有粉丝,B站都是娱乐明星争夺年轻受众的兵家必争之地。

In the past few quarters, the user base of B station has been expanding, which is the result of the combination of content category expansion, product advertising, purchase quantity and so on. The New Year's Gala at Station B, which just ended, apparently further enhanced B's position among younger users. Look carefully at the program of this New Year's Eve party, and you will find that there are some hard-core quadratic element content, some pan-quadratic element content, but also a lot of content unrelated to the quadratic element culture. Wu Yifan cheerfully took the stage to sing \"big bowl wide noodles \", thus further consolidated the entertainment class content in the B station positioning. Last time I visited station B, I happened to meet Huang Xiaoming to visit, I also wondered: does Huang Xiaoming have many fans in station B? Now don't wonder, whether there are fans or not, station B is the entertainment star's battle for young audiences.

  现在,B站最热门的PUGC品类是生活、娱乐、游戏(排名可能有变化);其中前两类与二次元文化无关。你或许会说:游戏是二次元文化的一部分,中文语境里的二次元就是ACGN嘛!然而,B站最热门的游戏视频和直播内容往往是《王者荣耀》《和平精英》《绝地求生》《英雄联盟》。当然,看FGO或舰娘的人也很多,但是绝不占多数。

Now, the most popular PUGC categories in station B are life, entertainment, games (ranking may change); the first two are not related to quadratic element culture. Game is part of the quadratic element culture, and the quadratic element in the Chinese context is ACGN. However, the most popular video and live content of station B's game is often Honor of Kings, Peace Elite, PUBG, League of Legends. Of course, there are a lot of people who look at FGO or the ship's mother, but it's not a majority.

  B站对自己的定位是以Z世代为核心用户的社区,而Z世代不一定要是二次元,尤其不一定要是硬核二次元。Z世代喜欢尝试新鲜事物,喜欢解构权威,喜欢去中心化,喜欢二次创作,喜欢构筑小圈子,喜欢真挚的感情……这些构成了B站的天然调性。假设B站能服务好Z世代,将绝大部分Z世代年轻人变成自己的MAU,那么它确实能够兵不血刃地做到2亿MAU,又不影响社区调性。

Station B is positioning itself as a community with the core users of Generation Z, which is not necessarily a quadratic element, especially a hard-core quadratic element. Z generation like to try new things, like to deconstruct authority, like decentralization, like to create a second time, like to build a small circle, like sincere feelings. These constitute the natural tonality of station B. Assuming that B serves the Z generation well and turns most of the Z generation into its own MAU, it can do 200 million MAUs without affecting community tonality.

  然而,还有很多应用在争夺Z世代。一个90后职场新人可能同时使用抖音、快手、B站、爱奇艺、腾讯视频和喜马拉雅FM。一个00后大学生的晚间生活需要在《和平精英》、B站弹幕、抖音小姐姐和《庆余年》当中分配。B站究竟能够分到其中的多少注意力呢?对于那些硬核二次元和泛二次元用户来说,B站是精神家园、是信仰级别的存在;对于那些优秀的生活类或娱乐类UP主来说,B站是“一粉顶十粉”的优秀内容发布平台、聚集人气之地。对于千千万万的年轻吃瓜群众呢?B站真的对他们有什么特殊意义吗?

However, there are many applications competing for generations of Z. A post-90s newcomer to the workplace may use both jitters, fast hands, B stations, iqiyi, Tencent videos and Himalayan FM. A post-00 college student's evening life needs to be allocated among the Peace Elite, the B-stop screen, the quivering little sister and the Celebration Year. How much attention can stop B have in it? For those hard-core quadratic element and pan-quadratic element users, station B is the spiritual home, is the belief level existence; for those excellent life class or entertainment class up master, station B is \"one powder top ten powder\" the outstanding content release platform, gathers the popularity. For millions of young onlookers? Does B really mean anything to them?

  在历史上,B站反复证明了自己善于社区运营、善于理解年轻人、善于以去中心化的流量分配机制扶持内容创作者。三大视频平台无法做到以上任何一条,只能走上“版权采购军备竞赛”的不归路;抖音对年轻人的理解很深,但是它的推荐机制是中心化的;快手在上述每个方面都做的很好,但是它的核心用户与B站相差甚远。B站就这样享受着独一无二的生态位,近乎伊甸园的甜蜜时光。但是,它依然是在打仗,与武装到牙齿、随时想抢走它的大本营的竞争对手打仗。这些竞争对手暂时打不进来,而B站想打出去。未来的战争会更加残酷。

In history, B station has repeatedly proved that it is good at community operation, understanding young people, and supporting content creators with a decentralized flow distribution mechanism. The three big video platforms cannot do any of this, only go to the \"copyright procurement arms race\" road; the tone of understanding of young people, but its recommendation mechanism is central; fast hands do well in each of these aspects, but its core users are far from station b. Station B enjoys its unique niche, near the sweet time of Eden. However, it is still at war, fighting against its rivals, armed to the teeth and ready to take away its stronghold. The competitors couldn't get in for the time being, and station B wanted to get out. future war will be more cruel.

  如果我的记忆没有错,在中国互联网的历史上,还从未有内容平台做到过在用户基数急剧扩张的同时,不损害原有内容调性。B站希望做成这件前无古人的事情,我也希望它做成——在这个先例之后,会有很多来者。具体怎么做到呢?

If my memory is not wrong, in the history of China's Internet, there has never been a content platform in the user base expansion at the same time, without compromising the original content tonality. B station wants to do this unprecedented thing, and I want it to be done -- after this precedent, there will be a lot of people. How exactly?

互联网与娱乐怪盗团国金证券传媒与互联网研究团队的公众号。我们是活跃在互联网、传媒娱乐、信息技术市场上的掘金怪盗团,专门寻找宝物,也就是优秀的上市公司或非上市公司。欢迎投资者、业内人士和上市公司与我们联系。

The public name of the internet and entertainment syndicated national gold securities media and internet research team. We are active in the Internet, media entertainment, information technology market Nuggets, specializing in the search for treasures, that is, excellent listed companies or non-listed companies. Investors, industry insiders and listed companies are welcome to contact us.


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